Monte is a former federal cabinet minister and MP for Medicine Hat. He is now a Senior Advisor with Fleishman-Hillard, based in Calgary.

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Monday
Jan182010

Can climate scientists admit to even a speck of doubt?

The other day I stared into the future and it stared back at me in a judgmental and disapproving way.

That’s when I considered starting the year with a resolution to stop procrastinating, which I am still considering.

It’s not that I don’t have lots of things to work on; it’s just that other people’s flaws are so much more annoying than mine. In fact, I think we can all agree that my shortcomings are not so much annoying flaws as they are endearing eccentricities.

Anyway, for that entirely terrific reason, I have decided to help others improve themselves by making resolutions for them.

My wish for certain climate scientists is that they resolve to admit into their theory even the tiniest speck of doubt. To make me happy, this skeptical speck need not be any bigger than a dust mote, but it does need to be big enough to give these scientists pause in the face of evidence that confounds their theory.

Besides, what a winsome social grace to be able to sincerely and humbly admit the possibility of being wrong on a subject so layered with complexity. Why on occasion I myself have been wrong, but why dwell on that.

It’s just that the acid test for scientific theories is that if they are true, then you should be able to use them to accurately make predictions. The fact that average temperatures peaked 10 years ago and have yet to reach that former record high is not only something that climate scientists didn’t predict, it’s something that at least some tried to cover up. Why not take a heroic stance and admit with a sheepish grin that their theory needs revising.

Recently, Europe has been a solid block of ice. The southern U.S. has been in the grip of record cold with horrifying reports of frozen iguanas falling dead from the trees and with who knows what implications for the iguana harvest.

To be sure, this does not disprove the theory that humankind is destroying the Earth because of our incessant emitting, though it does make a spirited argument against it.

The 2007 International Panel on Climate Change declared that our catastrophic future had now arrived.

Sure that doesn’t mean that we won’t get lots of bone-chilling cold even if the planet is warming. I also suspect that in no way did these same climate scientists anticipate cold that would shatter decades-old records across vast swaths of the northern hemisphere.

My resolution for certain environmental activists is that they tell the truth about the impact of the Alberta oil sands. Last Tuesday, the Conference Board of Canada released a report pointing out that Canadians' use of planes, trains and automobiles creates a carbon footprint that is three-and-a-half times bigger than that of the oil sands.

This is a horribly inconvenient fact for people who like to wag a righteous finger at Alberta. Now, so armed with the truth, they can direct their indignation at the car in their driveway and their lamentable habit of driving to work in the morning.